NEW PODCAST | We simply launched a brand new Turner’s Take podcast and we dive into why we expect grains and livestock are vary sure, on the lookout for brief alternatives in crude and rbob gasoline, and we additionally speak concerning the US Dollar. Please click here to listen to the latest episode of TURNER’S TAKE PODCAST
MACRO MARKETS | Hurricane Irma and North Korea have been the 2 macro tales that appear to have probably the most affect on a number of the markets. Gold has seen help since North Korea began to check missiles once more whereas OJ and RBOB gasoline have been probably the most lively because of the newest hurricanes. I like fading the RBOB gasoline transfer. The manufacturing outages will probably be brief time period and I’m listening to a variety of the refineries are up and operating once more or shall be quickly.
GRAINS | I proceed to assume corn can be vary sure between the subsequent month or two. I like promoting straddles and amassing premium over the subsequent month or two. With Dec corn round $three.60 I don’t see us being far more than 20 cents decrease or larger for any size of time over the subsequent month or two. We have a whole lot of corn however with a carryout a bit north of two.zero billion I don’t see it as too burdensome whereas it isn’t tight both. It is just too late for a climate rally now and frost or South American planning rallies are nonetheless distant. For the close to futures I like enjoying the vary and promoting premium.
LIVESTOCK | I stay cattle may even be vary sure for the subsequent few weeks or months. We have a number of provide coming to market (as predicted by earlier Cattle on Feed stories) however we’re additionally going to see demand decide up too, which is seasonal. With Dec LC buying and selling round 113 I like promoting straddles. The 113 name/put straddle was buying and selling between eight.500 and 9.000 in the present day. That offer you a variety between 104 and 121 in Dec LC.
Dec Live Cattle
I additionally assume the Oct/Dec LC unfold goes to offer a very good worth quickly. Seasonally it’s a little early to get on this one however Oct is now buying and selling greater than 5 full factors underneath December!
Oct/Dec Live Cattle
ENERGY | I’ve been bearish on Crude Oil for some time as a result of as crude reaches $50 all of the shale operators begin to be worthwhile they usually ramp up manufacturing. November crude is round $48.50 and like promoting name spreads above $50 on rallies. I don’t need to brief it outright since you by no means know what can occur with OPEC or when a brand new battle breaks out within the Middle East, so the brief name spreads are a method to gather premium however have a hard and fast danger in case the sudden geopolitical occasion occurs.
I additionally like enjoying the bear aspect of RBOB gasoline. As we talked about above, the brief time period injury has been finished and refineries are coming again on-line. I feel the Dec17/Dec18 RBOB unfold appears good on a chart. It is somewhat skinny however that’s RBOB – it isn’t probably the most liquid market within the futures complicated.
Dec 17/Dec 18 RBOB
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