NEW PODCAST | I simply launched a particular WASDE podcast that goes over my ideas on the WASDE. Click here to listen to Turner’s Take Podcast: September 12, 2017 | USDA Sept WASDE Bearish
CORN | Yields have been HIGHER and never decrease because the commerce anticipated. Ending shares elevated to over 2.three billion and Dec Corn was down 12 cents at one level testing $three.45. Some merchants assume we’ve got a double backside in corn. The shut robust as corn made up some losses and closed above $three.50. I feel we’re going to chop round and I nonetheless like promoting straddles. I additionally like enjoying the vary in corn. We might see decrease costs when harvest will get in full swing however you additionally need to marvel what number of extra brief place the funds can add. Do they actually need to go report brief at these costs with a 2.three billion carryout. How a lot reward is left in that commerce if Dec Corn is buying and selling $three.45?
$three.45 ought to present vital help for Dec Corn but when harvest strain is robust we might commerce within the $three.30s. Any rallies to $three.70 in dec corn will probably be met with very robust resistance.
SOYBEANS | Old crop was bullish and new crop was bearish. Overall the report was mildly bearish for soybeans. The huge story is the pod weights – a report – and it lead the USDA to extend the yield to 49.9. WOW! Soybeans are going to be a troublesome commerce over the subsequent couple of weeks. Traders are going to focus closely on yield stories within the area to verify the report pod weights. STAY TUNED!
WHEAT | Minneapolis wheat was disappointing. The USDA was capable of improve ending shares by growing imports and reducing exports. The USDA is principally saying our HRS wheat export demand will go to Europe and if US HRS wheat costs are excessive sufficient it can make sense for European and/or South American wheat to make it to the US market. This occurred in soybeans a couple of years in the past. At some level US soybeans obtained so excessive that it made sense to ship South American beans to the US and the SAM + Shipping worth was equal to the upper US worth. If the market can do the identical factor with the HRS scarcity then that bull story goes to be restricted.
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